The gold market witnessed dramatic movement this week, with prices surging by nearly $111 from Monday’s low to yesterday’s peak at $3,360, before slipping back about $30. What triggered this spike? And is the current pullback signaling a larger trend shift or merely a temporary correction? Let’s dive into the full breakdown brought to you by the Smart Money Brief Team.
TL;DR: Key Takeaways
- Gold surged $111, then dropped $30.
- June trades: 54 in total, 70% success rate.
- Technicals favor bearish sentiment despite brief rally.
- Jerome Powell’s position still matters; no real change in Fed policy.
- US employment data may increase dollar strength, pressuring gold.
Performance Recap: June’s Trading Summary
In June 2025, we recorded 54 trades, of which 37 were successful a 70% success rate. This trend has remained consistent since 2022. Specifically, we executed 12 gold trades, and impressively, 10 of them were profitable. These results reflect a well-grounded strategy and reaffirm our reliance on data-driven decisions rather than emotional reactions.
Critics often claim we maintain a bias toward selling. However, our actions speak otherwise. Every trade is based on genuine signals not market noise. When 10 out of 12 gold trades are successful and all are sell positions, the data reinforces our bearish outlook.
Breaking the Hype: The Exclusive Sell Trade
While most online analysts were bullish suggesting gold would rocket past $3,700 we published an exclusive sell recommendation on YouTube. This trade was executed around $3,348 with a target near $3,326. Despite typographical errors mentioning Monday, it was actually Tuesday. The trade aligned perfectly with our projections, and the price continued declining, affirming our approach.
We even urged followers not to exit prematurely at $3,337 but to aim lower. This showcases how Smart Money Brief Team combines strategic patience with tactical execution.
Market Misinterpretations: Jerome Powell & the Fed
A wave of messages flooded our inbox: “Is Jerome Powell’s replacement the reason for the gold rally?” Let’s set the record straight. Powell is still the official spokesperson for the Federal Reserve and holds a voting weight equal to every other Fed member—one out of twelve. The idea of a “shadow government” influencing Fed policy is speculative fiction.
Although four of the twelve voting members rotate, seven are permanent. Even if Powell were replaced, it wouldn’t drastically alter policy without majority support. Thus, attributing gold’s movement solely to Powell is misleading.
Economic Data: Jobs Report Ahead
The ADP Non-Farm Employment report is due today at 4:15 PM UAE time. Markets expect a higher reading than the previous month, but the forecast still falls short of the usual 100,000–120,000 job stability benchmark. Consequently, the data may appear mixed. Still, markets tend to treat stronger-than-expected preliminary figures as bullish for the U.S. dollar, which can be bearish for gold.
Typically, unofficial reports underestimate the official numbers. Hence, an optimistic ADP reading often sets the stage for a strong NFP result. Accordingly, gold could face pressure if data beats expectations.
Technical vs. Fundamental Analysis: Where Do We Stand?
Let’s look at critical support and resistance levels:
- Pivot: 3318
- Resistance levels: 3329, 3344, 3354, 3369, 3389
- Support levels: 3309, 3286, 3275, 3254, 3239, 3213
So far, we’ve noticed candles stabilizing near these levels, which gives them credibility. The price repeatedly failed to break 3362, confirming bearish pressure. The market reacted to Powell rumors and anticipated job data—but not with clear fundamentals.
Cross-Market Comparisons
Reviewing price movements:
- Gold hit 3,360 and pulled back.
- Silver remains weak.
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) bounced back from 96.40 to 96.90.
- GBP/USD declined from 1.3760 to 1.3700.
- USD/JPY increased to 143.90.
- EUR/USD dropped from 1.1820 to 1.1775.
These developments show that the dollar is recovering adding downward pressure on gold.
Dispelling Myths: The “Powell Replacement” Fallacy
Contrary to social media chatter, Powell’s influence persists. He remains the public face of the Fed, testifying before Congress and addressing markets. Claims about a hidden power shift within the Fed are baseless. Even if a new appointment happens, it doesn’t reduce Powell’s current significance or voting weight.
The market’s overreaction appears fueled by misinformation and speculative emotion.
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Final Thoughts: Price Action & Expectations
Despite a $111 rally, gold lacked any convincing technical or fundamental support. The spike is more chaotic than constructive. Unless the price breaks below 3318, stronger bearish conviction is not confirmed. However, if this happens, expect rapid downside movement.
Additionally, today’s vote on U.S. tax cuts could influence the dollar. If passed, it might boost the economy and strengthen the greenback, further weighing on gold.
Furthermore, with a U.S. holiday approaching Friday and early market closure on Thursday, we anticipate preemptive positioning ahead of the labor data. This could inject volatility into the gold market.
Central Analysis from Trading Central
Trading Central reports that gold remains in a downtrend as long as it stays below 3345. If it breaches this level, it could retest 3357 or 3365. Otherwise, the target remains around 3320, then 3309.
Silver also stays in a bearish trajectory unless it moves above 36.20, with targets at 35.65 and 35.40.
Conclusion: Strategy Over Emotion
To wrap up, remember this: Don’t chase chaotic rallies without support from real data. The Smart Money Brief Team emphasizes logic and analysis, not blind optimism. Gold’s recent rise doesn’t reflect sustained buying or institutional demand.
We continue to favor sell setups unless the market proves otherwise with concrete signals.
Stay updated with our daily breakdowns and live broadcasts. Logic wins even if it takes time.
Smart Money Brief Team
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